How to Conduct a Personal Threat Assessment

A colleague once mentioned that he and I should have a Ph.D. in street science. After years of dealing with people from all walks of life, I think there is some substance to that.

My study of psychology has been useful, but experience has taught me that plain old-fashioned awareness and alertness are among the most valuable personal-defense skills. Recognizing when something isn’t right may give you the opportunity to avoid trouble before it begins.

That doesn’t mean treating everyone as a potential threat. We cannot go through life asleep, but neither do we wish to descend into paranoia. Building awareness means to recognize what is normal, notice what isn’t and make a reasonable assessment of the situation.

What Is a Personal Threat Assessment?

Situational awareness and threat assessment are related, but they aren’t the same thing. Situational awareness is observing what is happening around you. Threat assessment is using those observations to judge whether something presents a potential danger.

When assessing your surroundings for threats, there are four primary concerns: people, situations, environment and response. Observation, comprehension and application of observation are vital.

• People: Observe behavior rather than appearances alone. Watch for someone paying unusual attention to you, studying your belongings or deliberately closing distance.
• Situations: Pay attention to what is developing around you. A heated argument, aggressive behavior or sudden change in a crowd may signal trouble.
• Environment: Know your surroundings. Notice entrances, exits, obstacles and areas where your movement may be restricted.
• Response: Consider your options before trouble develops. Know where you can go and how you might avoid a confrontation.

Alertness is the most important component, but that doesn’t mean being constantly on edge. We are generally alert when driving, yet many of us pay less attention when walking or going about our daily business. However, maintaining a high level of alertness all day is physically and emotionally draining.

The goal is a middle ground. Notice the people and situations around you without allowing every occurrence to cause stress or fear.

How to Recognize Potential Threats

Practiced observation is situational awareness. Judgment is threat assessment.

Learn to Recognize What Is Normal

I’ve worked roving patrol on foot and in vehicles, been stationed at fixed locations and observed people and situations both remotely and in person. Experience teaches you to recognize what is normal. Once you’ve established that baseline, something unusual may jump out at you.

I learned this in traffic enforcement. If everyone is traveling at 30 miles per hour, the vehicle moving at 40 stands out. I learned to judge speed in increments of 5 miles per hour simply by observing traffic.

The same principle applies to people. Someone moving through a crowd in an unusual manner or who appears hypervigilant may catch your attention. A person watching for a bus is one thing; someone deliberately homing in on a potential victim is another.

The trick is recognizing behavior that doesn’t fit the situation, then determining whether it merits closer attention.

Recognize Behavioral Warning Signs

I often tell students to train as though they may face an adversary at least as well-trained and armed as themselves. Underestimating an adversary is poor preparation.

Criminals may also practice their own form of situational awareness. They look for people whose thoughts are everywhere but in the moment. They recognize vulnerability and assess which potential victims may fight back. This is sometimes called victim selection.

During my travels through the years, I’ve spotted individuals I believed to be pickpockets and other potential predators. The ones I didn’t see concerned me more.

So what merits your attention?

Eye contact can be revealing. A potential assailant may study your clothing, belongings or the area he intends to strike. He may be considering grabbing a purse or bag or delivering a punch to the head.

Most people on the street, in a mall or while traveling don’t like to be caught staring. Someone deliberately studying a potential victim may behave differently. An attempt to appear nonchalant may also be worth noticing.

Verbal cues matter. Statements such as “Trust me” or “I don’t want to be any trouble” deserve attention when they don’t fit the person’s behavior or the situation. Unusual or disjointed speech may also indicate a person’s mental state is not wholesome.

No single glance, statement or mannerism tells the whole story. The important thing is to observe what a person is doing and consider the situation. There may be a constellation of warning signs for those who practice situational awareness.

Pay Attention to Your Surroundings

I learned to size up people early in life, having been introduced to my father and grandfather’s business dealings at a young age. My grandfather taught me never to count a pocketful of money in front of a crowd. That advice is just as valid today.

Pay attention to the people around you and the environment you’re entering. Criminals have certain areas where they are comfortable operating. Law enforcement sometimes refers to this as an offender’s “activity space.” Understanding your surroundings may help you avoid trouble.

It is also important to distinguish threat assessment from a threat profile. A threat assessment evaluates potential threats or dangerous behaviors, while a threat profile describes the characteristics of a potential threat.

Consider the “hugger mugger” who robbed my friend Vince in Rome. Vince didn’t even realize he had been robbed until the next train stop as the young man didn’t appear threatening.

While you don’t need to be suspicious of everyone you encounter, learn to recognize that appearances alone don’t tell you what someone intends to do. Blissful unawareness is best left at the backyard fire pit. Exercising your senses when out and about is well worth the effort.

How to Conduct a Threat Assessment

Recognizing something unusual is only the beginning. You must determine whether it presents a danger and what, if anything, you should do about it.

The military uses a decision-making process called the OODA loop: Observe, Orient, Decide and Act. The principle is simple enough. You take in information, make sense of it, choose a course of action and follow through. Experience and preparation help you make those decisions without wasting valuable time.

Here is how to apply those principles to a personal threat assessment.

Step 1: Identify Potential Threats

Begin with your surroundings. Where are you going, who is nearby and what might present a problem? Consider the location, the time of day and any known concerns.

Before traveling or visiting an unfamiliar area, learn what you can about local conditions. Pay attention to warnings or reports of criminal activity. Once you arrive, observe what is normal for that environment.

You cannot anticipate every danger, but you can avoid walking into a situation completely unaware.

Step 2: Watch for Pre-Threat Indicators

Look for behavior that doesn’t fit the circumstances. Someone watching your belongings, repeatedly closing the distance or attempting to distract you may deserve closer attention.

Some criminals test potential victims before committing to an attack. An unexpected handshake, an offer that requires you to occupy both hands or persistent requests for money may be innocent. But such encounters can also be used to distract a person or determine how he will respond.

Consider the entire situation. Is the individual respecting your personal space? Does his behavior change when you decline an invitation or attempt to leave? Is someone else moving into position while your attention is occupied?

One unusual action doesn’t establish criminal intent. Several concerning behaviors occurring together may give you good reason to create distance.

Step 3: Evaluate the Level of Danger

Now comes judgment. Ask yourself how likely the situation is to become dangerous and what the consequences might be. A pickpocket and an armed robber present different threats. A person asking for directions is not the same as someone making threats and blocking your path.

Consider what you have observed rather than what you assume about a person’s appearance. Is the behavior escalating? Do you have room to move? Can you leave without becoming involved?

Threat assessment isn’t about predicting the future with certainty. It is about making a reasonable decision with the information available.

Step 4: Decide How You Will Respond

A good assessment is of little value if you haven’t considered what to do next.

The best response is often to avoid the problem entirely. Change direction, create distance or leave an area where trouble appears to be developing. If someone approaches aggressively, a clear verbal refusal may be appropriate.

Think through these decisions before you’re forced to make them. Mental rehearsal is useful because it allows you to consider possible situations and responses without the pressure of an actual confrontation.

Imagine someone approaching you in a parking lot and becoming increasingly aggressive. Where could you move? How would you create distance? What would you say? At what point would you seek help?

Planning doesn’t guarantee a particular outcome, but it gives you options to consider before precious seconds are lost.

Step 5: Continue Observing and Adjust Your Plan

A threat assessment is not a one-time decision. Circumstances change.

A person who initially appeared harmless may begin acting aggressively. An argument nearby may end peacefully or become more serious. An exit that was available a moment ago may become blocked.

Continue observing and be prepared to change your response as new information becomes available. This is the value of the OODA loop. Observation and judgment continue as the situation develops.

The goal is not to win a confrontation. It is to recognize trouble, make sound decisions and avoid injury whenever possible.

Situational Awareness Without Paranoia

One of the dangers of experience is what I call transference of caution. After spending time in dangerous environments, it’s easy to view every new situation through the same lens.

But every environment isn’t as dangerous as the streets you’ve walked. You cannot remain on high alert constantly, and everyone isn’t an attacker. Far from it.

I’ve met some wonderful people and enjoyed memorable conversations everywhere from Montmartre, France, to Hinton, West Virginia. Preconceived notions are best left at home. There are welcoming people everywhere, just as there are dangerous individuals.

Some criminals are motivated by profit and look for an easy victim. Others are motivated by a desire to cause suffering. These are different threats, but neither justifies treating every stranger as an adversary.

The objective is to remain observant without allowing suspicion to control your life. A relaxed but attentive state of awareness is something you can maintain throughout your daily activities.

Color Code of Awareness

A long-standing tool for those who may encounter danger is the Color Code of Awareness, popularized among shooters by Col. Jeff Cooper.

The Color Codes describe different mental states as a person becomes aware of a possible threat. They provide a way to think about alertness without maintaining unnecessary tension.

• White: Unprepared and largely unaware of your surroundings.
• Yellow: Alert but relaxed. This level of awareness can be maintained for long periods without fatigue.
• Orange: A possible threat has been identified. Your alertness increases, and you prepare to act if necessary.
• Red: The situation requires action. Body reactions may include an adrenaline dump.
• Black: Should be avoided. Nervous system becomes overwhelmed, preventing rational thought and movement.

How to Improve Your Threat Assessment Skills

Practice Observation in Everyday Situations 

People see things every day without truly observing them. This is one reason eyewitness accounts can be unreliable. Someone may remember an assailant’s shoes but miss the glasses he was wearing. Another may confuse one vehicle make with another.

Consider your own observations. Has someone complimented your shirt, only for you to realize you couldn’t remember what the logo said? Do you know the license plate number on your own vehicle?

It’s surprisingly easy to overlook something you see every day. Start paying attention.

Practice surveying a street scene from left to right and then right to left rather than staring straight ahead. Listen carefully, not simply to the loudest noises. Notice the people, vehicles and activity around you.

The objective isn’t to memorize every detail. It’s to become more observant so that important changes are less likely to escape your attention.

Use Mental Scenarios to Prepare

Physical behavior and verbal cues may provide warning that a confrontation is developing. Recognizing those signs gives you an opportunity to consider your response.

Practice thinking about how you would behave in different situations. A scenario is a mental drill. A situation is the real thing.

Time is a valuable asset. Thinking ahead may give you a few additional seconds to react, and those seconds may be enough to escape.

Awareness Is the First Step in Avoiding Danger

Situational awareness is useful well beyond personal defense. The same observational skills that help you recognize potential danger can help you avoid a vehicle collision or notice something unusual in your surroundings.

The key is learning what is normal, recognizing when something changes and using sound judgment to decide whether it deserves your attention.

You don’t have to be fearful or suspicious of everyone you meet. You do need to be alert. Practice observing your surroundings, consider the likely threats and avoid trouble whenever possible.

I’ve often compared trouble to a car wreck. If you see it developing in time, you may be able to avoid it altogether.

That is the value of situational awareness and threat assessment. The goal isn’t to prepare for a confrontation at every turn. It’s to recognize potential danger early enough that a confrontation may never be necessary.